Once again, the Blackhawks will be spectators for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this summer, as another season ends without a shot at hockey’s holy grail. But all of us – like most of you – will still be tuning in over the next few months to see what unfolds in the 2024 postseason.
The SCH staff assembled to offer some thoughts and make our picks for the first round matchups.
(Yes, we’re a few days late on this. Sue us.)
Western Conference
Dallas Stars (No. 1 overall seed) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (WC2)
Eric: Because of the quality of the two teams involved, this feels like a matchup we shouldn’t be seeing until the Western Conference Finals and yet, here we are now, entertain us. Vegas’ low seeding is at least partially due to them graduating into the phase a lot of previous Cup winners seem to get to where they no longer give a shit about their seeding or the regular season, though the fact they were the last team in the west to qualify (and it was closer than it should have been) should have given them enough of a jolt that they’re wide awake now. Golden Knights captain Mark Stone’s yearly “totally super serious you guys, we really truly mean it this time” inury has magically healed for the start of the playoffs YET AGAIN, and the old camp circumvention two-step allowed Vegas to reinforce with both Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin. The Golden Knights are absolutely the heels of the NHL at this point, and as much as I’m dying to pick against them, they’re simply too good. Golden Knights in six.
Dave: The Dallas Stars have been a constant source of annoyance for reasons I cannot fully explain, but it feels like they’re crowned preseason Cup contenders damn near every season yet seem to mostly fall apart when the games start to really matter in April. Their run to the Cup in 2020 should probably come with an asterisk and the only other deep run they had was ended by this Vegas side. So I’d really, really like to pick them to fall apart once again and pick VGK to advance here, but I cannot trust either of the Knights’ goalies and so I’m defaulting to Dallas here. Stars in six.
Betsy: The Stars are the better team, but they have one major weakness this season that a series against another good team will absolutely take advantage of: their goaltending. Odd to say considering Jake Oettinger almost stole a series in 2022 and was solid in 2023, but he’s fallen off a cliff in terms of his play this season, and it’s going to take the players in front being dominating to over compensate. The Golden Knights getting their yearly playoff dose of Mark Stone just in time for the playoffs also means trouble for anyone ahead of them. If Dallas lets in too many goals, they don’t have quite the fire power to comeback, either. The Stars should be able to pull it off, but it’s more of a coin flip than their standing positions indicate. Stars in seven.
Winnipeg Jets (No. 2 in Central) vs. Colorado Avalanche (No. 3 Central)
Eric: Winnipeg’s starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck shouldn’t just walk away with his second Vezina Award (given to the league’s top goaltender), but he should also be a legitimate candidate for the Hart (league MVP) after he finished in the top five in goals against average, save percentage, shutouts, and starts. One of the reasons he won’t win the Hart though is Nathan MacKinnon, who went absolutely nuclear this season in putting up career highs of 51 goals, 89 assists, and 140 points. The Avalanche enter as the highest-scoring team in the league (3.68 goals per game), but the Jets are tied for the league’s lowest goals against (2.41 goals per game). These are two really good teams, as evident by the fact their combined point total is far and away the highest of any series in the first round. This one could ultimately just come down to Hellebuyck vs. MacKinnon, in which case I’ll give a slight edge to Nate for being one of the most lethal scorers in the league (and also an absolute psychopath). Avalanche in seven.
Dave: Speaking of teams that never seem do much of anything in the postseason when it matters … the Winnipeg Jets! Connor Hellebuyck is a monster but Colorado has Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, both of whom seem more than capable of slaying any creatures occupying the opposing net. Colorado may not have the depth it once had to run all the way to the Cup, it can still bury this divisional foe underneath, dare I say, an avalanche of goals. Avalanche in five.
Betsy: This is going to be another tight series as both teams get similar statistical results — less than a percentage point separated them in shot attempt or expected goals share, for example. How they achieve those results varies, but the fact is the Jets and Avs are an pretty even match-up I usually rag on the Jets because pundits have been saying their legit for a while now, but this year they actually seem to have some substance to them. The Avalanche has consistency issues much of the season but still managed to be solidly top-10 in the league. Jets in seven.
Vancouver Canucks (No. 1 in Pacific) vs. Nashville Predators (WC1)
Eric: The Predators went 20-5-3 down the stretch to resume their annual tradition of being an incredibly annoying, low seeded, difficult out that looks like they could go on an extended run if a few things break their way (though we all remember far too well the one year when that actually came to fruition). The Canucks have a ton of offensive talent up top with Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Quinn Hughes leading the way, and they should be able to outscore most of their issues in the first round. Vancouver’s most important player though is goaltender Thatcher Demko, so it’s no coincidence that they just put together their best season as a team since 2011-12 in the midst of Demko having the best year of his career. The Canucks went 3-0 against Nashville this season, outscoring them 13-6 in the process. I’m expecting more of the same. Canucks in six.
Dave: Nashville continues showing up in the postseason and promptly being punted to the nearest beach which continues to be hilarious because it’s kept the Predators from blowing up this mostly mediocre roster for several seasons now. Will this season change any of those things? Of course not! Canucks in four.
Betsy: Another close match-up imo. The Predators and Canucks have almost exactly the same shot attempts share (51.46 vs. 51.45 percent, respectively), but the former has an edge in expected goals share (53.04 vs. 51.41 percent). The difference is that Nashville was pretty consistent the whole season while Canucks trended up as the season progressed, regressing positively in ways we haven’t seen from a team riding a high PDO early. It feels like the Canucks might finally have something good going for them, and honestly it would be cool to see Vancouver get a little more playoff hockey. Canucks in six.
Edmonton Oilers (No. 2 in Pacific) vs. Los Angeles Kings (No. 3 in Pacific)
Eric: The Oilers have knocked the Kings out of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. They’ve won six of the last seven times they’ve faced each other — including winning three of four this season. The expectations for Edmonton continue to be sky-high, as they should be when you have two of the best offensive players in the entire league, though Leon Draisaitl is coming off a down year where he “only” scored 107 points (41 G, 65 A) this season. There’s a definite feeling that this might be the make-or-break run for this iteration of the Oilers, as Draisaitl is set to be a free agent next summer (2025) and has made it known he’s not especially interested in signing an extension without a ring first, leading some to speculate he could be moved this summer (hey there, Ken Holland). I haven’t said much about Los Angeles because I probably don’t really need to. The Kings run a 1-3-1 system that’s designed to stifle their opponents while boring their audience to death. It hasn’t worked against Edmonton either of the last two playoffs, and it’s not going to work against them this time either. Oilers in five.
Dave: One of my takeaways from what happened with the Boston Bruins last season (historically dominant regular season; incredibly short postseason) was that this is a young man’s game, perhaps moreso now than ever. That would suggest bad news for the Kings, because the ice time leader for the team is 34-year-old Drew Doughty. The ice team leader among forwards is 36-year-old Anze Kopitar. The No. 1 goalie is 36-year-old Cam Talbot. So, yeah, I’ll take McDavid and Draisaitl and the Oilers in six.
Betsy: The Kings are always one of the better statistical teams in the league, but that’s really more to do with their system than the players. The Oilers are the opposite, relying heavily on their big hitters like McDavid and Draisaitl, to carry them beyond their lack of depth and poor system. This is the first year Edmonton feels like they have some quality meat to their roster that can carry their own weight while the Kings are still a little deflated. Plus, the Oilers kind of own the Kings as of late, and that was before they got their stuff together. Oilers in five.
Eastern Conference
New York Rangers (No. 1 overall) vs. Washington Capitals (WC2)
Eric: The brother against brother series as Rangers’ defenceman Ryan Lindgren will go up against his brother Charlie, the goaltender for the Capitals — who not only saved Washington’s season after he wrestled the No. 1 starter’s job away from Darcy Kuemper, but he also just about dragged them into the playoffs single-handedly by winning four of his last five starts. The Capitals’ minus-37 goal differential is the worst for a playoff team since 1990-91, whereas the Rangers just won The Presidents’ Trophy while also setting franchise records for both wins (55) and points (114). Washington would need to catch every single break imaginable, and have Alex Ovechkin remain white-hot, just to give them an outside chance at making this a long series. That’s not happening. Rangers in five.
Dave: This was not a lengthy thought process for me. I looked at what the Rangers did this season and the Capitals minus-37 goal differential and hammered the Rangers in four button.
Betsy: I’d love nothing more for the Caps to go far because their one of the few teams I root for regular outside of the Blackhawks, but their a little out of their depth against this Rangers teams. Don’t get me wrong, the Rangers are more mid than their President’s Trophy record indicates, but the Caps were barely treading water and was just the best of the meh among the disappointing Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, and Detroit Red Wings. Rangers in five.
Carolina Hurricanes (No. 2 in Metropolitan) vs. New York Islanders (No. 3 in Metropolitan)
Eric: The Hurricanes took a big swing at the trade deadline by acquiring arguably the top forward available in Jake Guentzel, and a smaller, more interesting one in taking a flyer on Evgeny Kuznetsov. Guentzel has been everything Carolina had hoped he would be and more since coming over the Penguins, scoring 25 points (8 G, 17 A) in just 17 regular season games, and Kuznetsov just had a goal and an assist in game one. So long as Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen saves his usual season ending injury for round two, Carolina should cruise. Hurricanes in five.
Dave: Carolina remains the analytics darlings of the NHL but that team also continues to reinforce my theory that teams who are consistently at the very top of possession metrics are there because they generate too many chances that do not result in goals and, at some point, that points to a lack of finishing touch that will keep a team from scoring the goals it needs when those goals matter most. But the Islanders are also not the team that’s going to make Carolina pay for that deficiency just yet. Hurricanes in five.
Betsy: Carolina is a team little like the Kings where they’re always good in terms of underlying stats but they’ve never had the front-end power to win the Cup. Oh, they’ve got one of the best defensive cores in the league and some very good talent in their forward group, but no real star beyond Sebastian Aho, but even he’s not quite on the level as some top-10 talent on other rosters. Still, the Canes are much superior to the Islanders who are just kind of there for funsies. It’s really the second and third rounds that will be interesting for Carolina. Hurricanes in five.
Florida Panthers (No. 1 in Atlantic) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (WC1)
Eric: This should be one of the best series in the first round as both teams are not only stacked, but also really, truly hate each other. Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov may have just put up one of the best offensive seasons in the history of the NHL — joining Wayne Gretzky as the only players is history to record more than 40 goals and 100 assists in a season — while also setting the NHL record for most assists in a season by a winger. But defense tends to tighten up in the playoffs, and the Panthers allowed just 2.41 goals per game this season, which had them tied for the lowest mark overall. Florida has too much depth, and they should be plenty motivated after running out of gas in the Final versus Vegas last summer. Panthers in six.
Dave: Florida feels like the new kids on the block of truly elite NHL teams, with an extremely talented core of players who are all in their mid/late-20s and occupy top spots on both the forward lines and defensive pairings. It’s fair to question whether or not 35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky in net, but backup Anthony Stolarz was also excellent during the regular season and provides an excellent insurance policy. Tampa is still Tampa, so it’ll probably steal a game or two, but the Lightning feel like a dynasty with the label “former” in front of it due to the combination of age and salary-cap casualties. Panthers in six.
Betsy: Is it weird I don’t care about either of these teams? Both are fine, the Panthers are technically better but the Lightning know how to be closers. Still can’t muster up much give-a-fuck about them, though. They’ll probably go a little longer but not to seven games, so Panthers in six.
Boston Bruins (No. 2 in Atlantic) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 3 in Atlantic)
Eric: The bad news for Toronto is that they didn’t seem to learn all that much from their five-game, second-round loss to the Panthers last season, as there’s still gaping holes on their roster on defense and in goal. Sure you can continue to try and just outscore your problems when you have Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander on your team — but now all of a sudden Nylander was held out of game one with a “mysterious” undisclosed injury (still no updates), after finishing the regular season with just four point (all assists) in his final 11 games. TD Garden has been a house of horrors for the Leafs, so their 5-1 loss on Saturday night won’t do much to help their confidence. It was also the eighth straight playoff game where Toronto failed to score more than two goals. Boston continues to roll in a season where they weren’t supposed to be this good, and the pressure is completely off them after last year’s epic meltdown. Jeremy Swayman has cemented himself as one of the beat goalies in the league, and the Leafs have a lot of work to do. Bruins in six.
Dave: Want to know how dedicated I am to my bracket challenge picks? I’m going to say Maple Leafs in five here even though I’m typing this sentence as the Bruins are up 2-1 late in the second period of Game 2 after blowing out Toronto in Game 1. It feels like I’m going to be very, very wrong but at least I’ll still be able to point and laugh in the direction of Toronto once again!
Betsy: This is the trickiest series for me because this Bruins squad is just not as good as in years past — they’re about on par with the Islanders and Capitals, statistically. And while the Leafs didn’t really get particularly better since last year, they should on paper be good enough to beat this Bruins team. Should is the key word there, though, because Boston seems to be Toronto’s kyptonite. However, the biggest issue in this series currently is how Jim Montgomery is going to handle his goalie tandem: he already went unnecessarily with Linus Ullmark instead of Swayman in Game 2 despite the latter being better all season and putting up a ridiculously good Game 1 performance. Crazy. Maple Leafs in seven because that’s what this rivalry deserves.