If it wasn’t a forgone conclusion on May 7 when the Blackhawks were awarded the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NHL draft, it became apparent relatively quickly that their choice would ultimately boil down to deciding between two players: 18-year-old Michigan State stud defenseman Artyom Levsuhnov or 18-year-old Russian forward and offensive wonder Ivan Demidov.
There are a plethora of fantastic articles arguing the merits of both players (including our own — here’s Levshunov’s and here’s Demidov’s) and, while there’s never been a true consensus either way, it feels like the sentiment has shifted wildly back and forth between the two the last few weeks as both prospects met with the media and showcased their individual personalities and skills.
A component of the big picture that I’ve seen debated in multiple articles is something along the lines of: “Levshunov should be the clear choice because it’s harder to find a true No. 1 defenseman than it is to find a point-per-game forward.” Pretending we exist in a universe where both of these players will automatically hit their ceiling and become those very two things — is that actually true?
I wanted to pull some numbers to try and figure that out.
(As an aside, I find it incredibly interesting and hilarious that the contemporary players referenced most in regards to the type of winger Demidov could turn out to be are Artemi Panarin, Nikita Kucherov, and Kirill Kaprizov — none of which were drafted anywhere near the first round, with Panarin not even being drafted at all. All three of those players shattered all kinds of records while they were playing in Russia, but were ultimately discounted as prospects due to the level of competition they faced, which is exactly the same criticism that’s being lobbed at Demidov right now as well. North American bias? Perhaps.)
Let’s start by taking a league wide look at elite No. 1 defensemen. What that label actually means is pretty hard to define — some people will tell you Seth Jones is that type of No. 1 defenseman, and to that I say, “Ha!” … and, “No.” But you can’t just do it by points like you can with wingers, though that certainly is a contributing factor. Setting a baseline of 50 points already reduces the field to 20 names — and the only person I’d slightly argue for who is below that threshold is Charlie McAvoy, who shows up at No. 25 in defensive scoring. But a true No. 1 plays in all situations, which means running the top power-play unit and being a primary penalty killer, and when I factored that in I ended up with a list of just 14 players in a 32-team league, proving just how rare that specific type of defenseman is.
We’re left with:
- Quinn Hughes
- Cale Makar
- Roman Josi
- Evan Bouchard
- Victor Hedman
- Adam Fox
- Noah Dobson
- Josh Morrissey
- Rasmus Dahlin
- Miro Heiskanen
- Drew Doughty
- MacKenzie Weegar
- John Carlson
- Mike Matheson
And this is how those players were acquired by their specific team:
- Quinn Hughes – Drafted 1st round (7th overall) by the Vancouver Canucks
- Cale Makar – Drafted 1st round (4th overall) by the Colorado Avalanche
- Roman Josi – Drafted 2nd round (38th overall) by the Nashville Predators
- Evan Bouchard – Drafted 1st round (10th overall) by the Edmonton Oilers
- Victor Hedman – Drafted 1st round (2nd overall) by the Tampa Bay Lightning
- Adam Fox – Drafted 3rd round (66th overall) by the Calgary Flames — Fox’s rights were traded from Calgary to Carolina as part of the Dougie Hamilton/Elias Lindholm deal after he informed Calgary he wouldn’t sign with them, Fox’s rights were traded from the Hurricanes to the New York Rangers after he informed Carolina he would only sign with New York
- Noah Dobson – Drafted 1st round (12th overall) by the New York Islanders
- Josh Morrissey – Drafted 1st round (13th overall) by the Winnipeg Jets
- Rasmus Dahlin – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the Buffalo Sabres
- Miro Heiskanen – Drafted 1st round (3rd overall) by the Dallas Stars
- Drew Doughty – Drafted 1st round (2nd overall) by the Los Angeles Kings
- MacKenzie Weegar – Drafted 7th round (206th overall) by the Florida Panthers — Weegar was traded to Calgary as a part of the package that got the Panthers Matthew Tkachuk
- John Carlson – Drafted 1st round (27th overall) by the Washing Capitals
- Mike Matheson – Drafted 1st round (23rd overall) by the Florida Panthers — Matheson was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins by Florida for Patric Hornqvist, Matheson was traded by the Penguins to the Montreal Canadiens for Jeff Petry
Obviously, it’s incredibly difficult to find that player outside of drafting them (very highly) in the first round, as only three of the 14 weren’t first-rounders, and only three of the 14 are currently playing for a team other than the one who drafted them. Also of note, none of those players have ever been a free agent in any capacity. If the Blackhawks believe Levshunov profiles to have that skill set and be a truly elite, all-situations defenseman, then this could very well be their best chance to bring that player into their system via the draft. Of course, it’s possible to attempt to find that defenseman another way, but we all remember how much it cost them the last time they tried to do so — their best defensive prospect, plus two first-round picks for the aforementioned Seth Jones who, again, has had one season where he came close to being that type of player.
As for the forwards, the only stipulation was that they averaged at least a point per game, and this season that gives us a list that’s almost twice as long, with a total of 27:
- Nikita Kucherov
- Connor McDavid
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Artemi Panarin
- David Pastrnak
- Auston Matthews
- Leon Draisaitl
- Mikko Rantanen
- Kirill Kaprizov
- J.T. Miller
- Mitch Marner
- William Nylander
- Jack Hughes
- Jake Guentzel
- Sam Reinhart
- Filip Forsberg
- Sidney Crosby
- Sebastian Aho
- Brayden Point
- Matthew Tkachuk
- Alexsander Barkov
- Elias Pettersson
- Jack Eichel
- Robert Thomas
- Steven Stamkos
- Dylan Larkin
- Jesper Bratt
And here’s how all those players were acquired:
- Nikita Kucherov – Drafted 2nd round (58th overall) by the Tampa Bay Lightning
- Connor McDavid – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the Edmonton Oilers
- Nathan MacKinnon – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the Colorado Avalanche
- Artemi Panarin – Signed as an International Free Agent by the Chicago Blackhawks and then nothing else ever happened after that because who would be dumb enough to trade him
- David Pastrnak – Drafted 1st round (25th overall) by the Boston Bruins
- Auston Matthews – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the Toronto Maple Leafs
- Leon Draisaitl – Drafted 1st round (3rd overall) by the Edmonton Oilers
- Mikko Rantanen – Drafted 1st round (10th overall) by the Colorado Avalanche
- Kirill Kaprizov – Drafted 5th round (135th overall) by the Minnesota Wild
- J.T. Miller – Drafted 1st round (15th overall) by the New York Rangers — traded by the Rangers to the Lightning with Ryan McDonagh for two picks and three players, traded by Tampa Bay to the Vancouver Canucks for a 1st and 3rd round pick
- Mitch Marner – Drafted 1st round (4th overall) by the Toronto Maple Leafs
- William Nylander – Drafted 1st round (8th overall) by the Toronto Maple Leafs
- Jack Hughes – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the New Jersey Devils
- Jake Guentzel – Drafted 3rd round (77th overall) by the Pittsburgh Penguins — traded by Pittsburgh to the Carolina Hurricanes (as a rental) for two picks and four players
- Sam Reinhart – Drafted 1st round (2nd overall) by the Buffalo Sabres — traded by Buffalo to the Florida Panthers for a 1st round pick and goalie prospect Devon Levi
- Filip Forsberg – Drafted 1st round (11th overall) by the Washington Capitals — traded by Washington to the Nashville Predators for Martin Erat (never not funny)
- Sidney Crosby – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the Pittsburgh Penguins
- Sebastian Aho – Drafted 2nd round (35th overall) by the Carolina Hurricanes
- Brayden Point – Drafted 3rd round (79th overall) by the Tampa Bay Lightning
- Matthew Tkachuk – Drafted 1st round (6th overall) by the Calgary Flames — traded by Calgary to the Florida Panthers for HAUL including a 1st round pick, Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar
- Alexsander Barkov – Drafted 1st round (2nd overall) by the Florida Panthers
- Elias Pettersson – Drafted 1st round (5th overall) by the Vancouver Canucks
- Jack Eichel – Drafted 1st round (2nd overall) by the Buffalo Sabres — traded by Buffalo to the Vegas Golden Knights for a 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, Alex Tuch, and Peyton Krebs
- Robert Thomas – Drafted 1st round (20th overall) by the St. Louis Blues
- Steven Stamkos – Drafted 1st round (1st overall) by the Tampa Bay Lightning
- Dylan Larkin – Drafted 1st round (15th overall) by the Detroit Red Wings
- Jesper Bratt – Drafted 6th round (162nd overall) by the New Jersey Devils
So it seems like there’s a little more room to maneuver with the forwards. Seven of the 27 weren’t first-round draft picks, which is a slightly higher clip than the defenders. Eight of them have been traded — including Miller being traded twice (which is somewhat attributed to both behavioral and salary cap issues) — and that number could jump up any second now as it’s rumored that Marner, and possibly even Draisaitl, might be available for the right price this summer. Panarin obviously reached free agency, despite Columbus desperately trying to convince him to stay, and Guentzel currently looks poised to become a free agent on July 1.
It feels safe to assume Connor Bedard will show up on that list eventually (maybe even as soon as next season), and then stay there for quite some time. When you look at the teams that are truly in contention, though, you’ll notice they all have at least two point-per-game forwards — with Tampa, Toronto, and the current champion Panthers all repping three each — so that kind of high-scoring running mate for Bedard is just as essential. Could the Blackhawks find that player by signing Guentzel or trading for Marner? Absolutely. But there’s a significant cost involved in making either of those moves as well.
Ultimately, this all comes down to the Blackhawks’ scouting and projection. Do they believe Levshunov is that special kind of defenseman? The kind that more than half of the teams in the league possibly don’t even have right now? Or do they see what most of us see when we look at Demidov, which is a game-breaking offensive wizard who should score at a point-per-game pace with ease (especially when paired with Bedard).
Scott Wheeler from The Athletic posted an article on Wednesday morning that, among many other draft-related tidbits, dropped a list of player comparables for the top 17 prospects in the draft.
Here were his comps for Levshunov: “Noah Dobson without the maturity (yet). There’s some Thomas Harley in him, too (though with a frame and disposition closer to Aaron Ekblad).“
And for Demidov: “I see some David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin, frankly.“
After wading through both lists, I know which one sounds more appealing to me.
This is not only a monumental choice for the direction of the Blackhawks moving forward, but also the most important decision Kyle Davidson has faced so far in his tenure as GM.
Here’s to hoping he gets it right, because he absolutely has to.